The movement of large numbers of refugees seems to be a factor in the growth of right-wing populism, and this populism often seems opposed to action to limit climate change. Systems organise themselves in many ways, here is one dynamic that links refugees, populism and climate action. Understanding the dynamic and finding ways of limiting its impact could increase climate action.
You can think of this dynamic as a sequence of causally linked changes that form a closed loop:
The escalation of right-wing populism, migration and climate inaction
If this dynamic or self-amplifying feedback loop became dominant, each of the changes in the loop would escalate, threatening life as we know it. Consider the changes forming this amplifying feedback loop.
Change 1: More global heating
The Earth will tend to keep on heating while it absorbs more heat from the sun than it radiates back into space. This heating is happening now due to very high greenhouse gas levels. For example in May 2019 carbon dioxide levels were about 415 part per million (ppm) – and they may need to come down to below 300 ppm before global heating stops.
The causal links are tendencies
The planet will only “tend” to continue heating as other influences could prevent this. For example, a large comet could hit the Earth and fill the atmosphere with debris. This could stop sunlight reaching the Earth and the temperature would drop. Each of the causal links in this dynamic is a tendency that can be over-ridden.
Change 2: More extreme weather
More global-heating tends to cause more extreme weather: extreme storms, floods, high tides, droughts, fires, heat, and occasionally extreme cold.
More heating also tends to cause more forced changes in land use. Here are some examples of this happening:
- Flooding is forcing people off their land in Bangladesh.
(Boats pass over where our land was: Bangladesh’s climate refugees: The Guardian: Jan 2018)
- Due to global heating, Australian winemakers are moving south to Tasmania
(As climate change bites, Tasmania raises a glass to its grape expectations: The Guardian: August 2013)
- Six islands in the Solomon Islands have had large swathes of land washed into the sea and on two of those, entire villages were destroyed and people forced to relocate,
- In a part of Miami, they have raised roads and installed pumps to avoid regular flooding during high tides – but they cannot do this over the whole Florida peninsula.
(Miami is racing against time to keep up with the sea-level rise: Business Insider: April 2018)
Change 3: More social and political instability
More extreme weather tends to cause more social and political instability. This can happen directly, e.g. when extreme drought leads to conflict over water. It can also happen indirectly when extreme weather compounds and magnifies existing instability.
Fish populations are moving as the oceans warm. In 2006, mackerel began appearing in Iceland and this led to dispute over catch quotas between Iceland and the European Union.
(Climate change prompts ‘mackerel wars’: Public Radio International: July 2013)
Climate change may have contributed to war in Syria
The connection between climate change and war is controversial. But it is possible that this has happened in Syria. In Syria, the long-term decrease in rainfall and warmer temperatures in the region made the 2006 to 2010 drought far more severe and this contributed to the uprising in Syria against the al-Assad regime.
(Global warming contributed to Syria’s 2011 uprising: The Guardian: March 2015)
(Map of Mediterranean showing areas with dry winters from 1971 to 2010 : Washington Post: Sep 2013)
(Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria: Peter H Gleick: Pacific Institute: Oakland: California: 2014)
Change 4: More deprivation
More instability tends to cause more deprivation. In Syria, this instability has led to massive deprivation: civil war, terrorism, repression, hunger, thirst, poverty, and homelessness.
Change 5: More migration
Increased deprivation tends to lead to more migration.
There has been massive disruption within Syria, 5.6 million Syrians are currently refugees, mostly in the Middle East, and 6.2 million Syrians are displaced within Syria. The 5.6 million Syrians make up the largest part of the 68.5 million people around the world where violent conflict has forced people to flee their homes.
(Forced to flee: Top countries refugees are coming from: World Vision)
Change 6: Right-wing populism increases
An increase in migration tends to increase right-wing populism with an increasing emphasis on:
- Protection of borders,
- Preservation of cultural identity
- Priority being given to national interest rather than international interests
- Rejection of international agreements and law
- A longing for life as it was in the past
We have seen this in:
- Europe: Hungary and Greece
- France: In EU parliamentary voting, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party narrowly beat President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party into second place.
- Australia with the Coalition and “stop the boats”
- The USA with Donald Trump’s “build the wall”
- Britain and the exit from Europe: Nigel Farage and hid Brexit Party surged to the top of the polls. The party has no official policies on climate change
Even liberal Sweden is being impacted
(Can the much-vaunted Nordic welfare model survive immigration?: The Age: 13 July 2019)
Change 7: Less climate action
Increased right-wing populism tends to decrease climate action, and the international efforts to stem climate change.
(What the Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Europe Means for Climate Science Denial: DeSmog UK: March 2019)
The current refugee problem has seen a swing towards right-wing populism in many countries. The concern is that as climate change continues the refugee problem is set to become far larger and this could continue to foster populism and limit climate action.
Change 8: The Earth continues heating
Reduced climate action will allow the continuing accumulation of heat by our planet Earth. This heating returns us to the start of the causal loop.
How can we oppose this dynamic
As climate change picks up speed, e.g. with sea rise drowning cities and displacing large numbers of people, this dynamic could become dominant and dangerous. How can we oppose this?
As right-wing populism seems to be on the rise, we need to put forward arguments that appeal to people drawn to this thinking.
It seems that global concerns and environmental concerns are not effective.
Here are several arguments that might be useful:
Ceasing climate action will see rapid climate change and lead to massive migration. Climate action will limit the number of people seeking refuge and so protect our borders.
There are economic benefits to moving to renewables, like Australia can become a renewable energy superpower.