Unseen vicious cycles often drive problems

People are often unaware of the cycles of cause and effect that shape their lives, societies, and environment.

“Structures [feedback cycles] of which we are unaware hold us prisoner. Conversely, learning to see the structures within which we operate begins a process of freeing ourselves from previously unseen forces and ultimately mastering the ability to work with and change them.” (Senge, 1992, p 94)

These amplifying feedback cycles drive change. They can be vicious cycles driving (1) climate change, or (2) a personal problem like drug addiction. They can also be virtuous cycles driving (3) the evolution of life on earth, or (4) promoting constructive change in a person’s life. Here is one vicious cycle driving climate change.

Rising global temperaturesLess ice cover
The Earth absorbs more of the sun’s heatLess reflection of sunlight back into outer-space

This website explores amplifying feedback across three domains, and each has an overview page:

Long-established “systems theory” recognises amplifying feedback as the fundamental dynamic through which any system can transform itself: ecosystems, minds, and societies (Maruyama, 1968).

This insight gave this website its name, “Feedback Reigns”.



One vicious cycle driving global heating

Again, consider this vicious cycle, one of many that are accelerating global heating.

Rising global temperaturesLess ice cover
The Earth absorbs more of the sun’s heatLess reflection of sunlight back into outer-space

While this cycle is dominant: (1) rising global temperatures melt ice, (2) reducing the area covered by ice, which (3) reduces the reflection of sunlight from the Earth, back into outer space, and (4) increases the planet’s absorption of the sun’s heat, which (5) increases global temperatures, and then (6) the cycle repeats.

It’s a dangerous self-reinforcing cycle: the more heating we have, the more heating we will get. It is one of many vicious cycles driving climate change, bringing more extreme heat, fires, and floods. We need radical climate action before these cycles become unstoppable. They threaten rapid, irreversible change and the end of life as we know it on planet Earth.

See The Critical Danger: Climate change’s vicious cycles.


Vicious cycles can drive personal problems

Over my ten years working as a problem gambling counsellor, I developed a simple, practical way of working with clients based on amplifying feedback. Here’s an example.

In a counselling session with client Zed, I identified a vicious cycle that drove his gambling. It was a revelation to him. (Zed is a fictional client.)

You gamble more to feel respected – that’s when you are winning.Damage: You lose more money & respect
You need more respect.

As we talked, I wrote keywords that he used on a whiteboard diagram under three headings: (1) what he liked about gambling, (2) what he disliked, and (3) other issues in his life. The above vicious cycle emerged from this larger diagram, and I summed it up, saying to him, “There is a cycle here: (1) the more you gamble to feel respected, while on winning streaks, (2) the more money you lose and the less respect you get at home and at work, so (3) the more you need respect, and (4) this throws you back to gamble more. This vicious cycle is making your life difficult.”

The process for generating and explaining the cyclic intervention is critical: the page describing the example counselling session details this.

I often used and adapted this process in my counselling practice. Grounded in systems theory and consistent with a wide range of established therapeutic theories, it has become a coherent, integrative framework for understanding behaviour in a practical way, potentially useful for a wide range of client problems.


Australia can be a renewable energy superpower.

There are advantages for Australia in taking action to limit climate change.

Map: Global distribution of combined wind and solar generation potential

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Australia glows orange on this map, indicating that we have strong wind and solar resources relative to most developed countries. We also have abundant mineral resources, such as iron ore and lithium. So, Australia can take action on climate change and become a renewable energy superpower. This would be a win for our climate, industry, jobs, and prosperity. See Australia: A Renewable Energy Superpower

Image Source: The global map of wind and solar potential is from the “Beyond Zero Emissions” 2015 publication “Renewable Energy Superpower”.


The massive cost of importing fossil fuels.

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Australia spends $61 billion annually on fossil fuel imports.

Another benefit of taking climate action is that, as Australia electrifies, we will be able to reduce this enormous flow of money from Australia to countries such as Russia. This would also make our energy supply more secure, as we would no longer rely on easily disrupted fossil fuel imports. We only have a few weeks’ worth of emergency fossil fuel stored in Australia.


A vicious cycle driving right-wing populism

Climate action is needed to reduce mass displacement and migration. If we fail to limit mass migration, another vicious cycle is likely to accelerate climate change.

Higher global temperaturesMore extreme weather


Less climate actionMore conflict over land, water, food & housing
More right-wing populismMore migration

This cycle could become dominant. While it dominates: (1) higher temperatures produce (2) more extreme weather, which (3) increases conflict over land, water, food, and housing, which (4) increases migation, which (5) increases right-wing populism, which (6) reduces climate action, which (7) increases temperatures further, which then (8) repeats the cycle.

Climate action is needed to limit mass migration – and right-wing populism.


Climate change evidence

Graph: Carbon dioxide levels over the past 400,000 years. Since 1950 levels have rocketed.

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See Evidence of human-caused climate change.


Convergence: The basis for scientific confidence

Image of convergence: A red arrow and five blue arrows meet point to point

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See Convergence: The Basis for Scientific Confidence.


Site Author: Andrew Gunner

See my background.


Site Overview (Map)

See the overview pages for the three main topics covered by this site.


Updated: 25 April 2026


3 Replies to “Unseen vicious cycles often drive problems”

  1. Thank you for this useful compilation of information – VERY useful to have on hand if one is having a debate with a denier of climate change
    Regards
    Pat Phair

    Reply

  2. This is brilliant Andrew, love the positive slogans. I do think they are the way to go. Undermines a lot of the antagonistic stance. Perhaps instead of ‘stop Adani’ type comments, there could be calls for a transition program to help fossil fuel employees. That might bring more folk on board.

    Reply

  3. This is a simply brilliant coverage of the issue Andrew, and so straightforward & accessible. It provides a wonderful reference for discussions and helps us remain positive, despite the difficulties we are all facing as the climate warms. Thanks you so much for putting this together and keeping it updated.

    Reply

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