Three Models of Change

Promote the achievements of renewables.

After a climate demonstration in September 2019, I realised that most of the banners were about:

  • What to stop, e.g., “Stop Adani”,
  • The dangers of climate inaction, e.g., “Welcome to the Age of Fire”, or
  • Unspecified action, e.g., “Climate Action Now”.

I didn’t see banners promoting solutions like:

Climate action advocates need to emphasise not only the urgency of a green transition but also:

  • The tangible benefits of renewable energy, and
  • The real progress we are already making toward a green economy.

People do not realise that now, in 2026, renewable generation supplies a substantial share of Australia’s electricity and underpins a growing, reliable energy system. On the East Coast Grid, renewables generated about 43% of electricity in 2025. I suspect that people too often recall renewables being belittled, e.g., Scott Morrison, as prime minister, mocking the new big battery in South Australia by likening it to the “Big Banana”.

A focus on achievement matters because successful change follows the virtuous cycle described below. Strengthening this virtuous cycle is essential if public confidence, political support, and further investment are to continue to grow.

Australia has already made remarkable progress towards becoming a renewable energy superpower. So we can use this progress to promote this vision. The progress shows that the superpower vision is realistic, while the resulting benefits demonstrate its value.



Models of change

Here are three models of change that can assist in understanding and achieving change:

  • The virtuous cycle of vision, progress and benefit
  • The states of grief
  • The determinants of change

Model: A Virtuous Cycle of Vision, Progress & Benefits

Diagram: This feedback cycle amplifies progress towards the vision of Australia as a renewable energy superpower.
Diagram: This feedback cycle amplifies progress towards the vision of Australia as a renewable energy superpower. (ZG71N3Sa)

A well-targeted vision, such as Australia becoming a renewable energy superpower, can form a self-reinforcing virtuous cycle in which:

  • A more strongly held shared vision tends to
  • Increase progress towards the vision, which tends to
  • Increase the benefits from the progress, which tends to
  • strengthen the shared vision, and the cycle repeats.

Model: The States of Grief

Many demonstration banners warn of climate dangers and demand closures. These banners can lead people to fear, loss, and grief. They find it too painful and so do not join in efforts to make a change.

I present these states of grief on my climate denial page:

  • Denial
  • Fantasy solutions
  • Anger
  • Depression, and
  • Acceptance

An effective climate campaign should help people accept climate science by reducing people’s chances of entrapment by the climate action-inhibiting states of grief, i.e., denial, fantasy, anger, and depression.

This is why finding common ground with people and avoiding argument is useful. It’s worth thinking about. I’m not claiming to be good at it.


Model: The Determinants of Change

Often, people urging climate action focus on the dangers of climate change. This model of change suggests promoting the dangers and more.

I based these “determinants of change” on an organisation development model, the Beckhard-Harris Change Model.

The five determinants of change follow.

Determinant: Dissatisfaction

Change is more likely when people are dissatisfied with the current situation, e.g., when they are concerned about the dangers of climate change.

The difficulty of promoting the dangers of climate change is that frightening people into change increases the chances of those states of grief that inhibit climate action, i.e., denial, fantasy, anger, and depression.

Determinant: Vision

Change is more likely when you have a widely shared vision; for example, the vision of Australia as a renewable-energy superpower could gain broad acceptance. An inspiring vision draws people into the change with excitement. They want to change rather than have to change.

Determinant: Plans

Change is more likely when you have plans for the next steps towards the vision. We have many plans that are consistent with the superpower vision, plans by:

  • Companies like Sun Cable,
  • government organisations like the Australian Energy Management Organisation and the CSIRO, and
  • non-government organisations like Beyond Zero Emissions,

Determinant: Benefits

Change is more likely when people see the benefits of the proposed change. The superpower vision offers many benefits, like:

  • A more robust and sustainable economy, and
  • Zero-emissions energy for Australia and the world.

Determinant: Low Cost

Change is more likely when people view the costs as low, reasonable, or inevitable. One example of how Australia could reduce the perceived cost of the superpower vision would be to prioritise a just transition for fossil fuel workers.

Promote each determinant of change.

The “determinants of change” model suggests that you make change more likely by promoting each determinant:

  • Dissatisfaction with the current status
  • Vision for the future
  • Plans for action
  • Benefits of the vision, possible or achieved
  • Reasonable costs of the change


Loaded November 2020. Changed 2 September 2026.