This page sets out many vicious cycles (circular chains of cause and effect) that are accelerating the current global warming. Often, in these cycles, rising temperatures trigger changes that produce even more heating.

To those who claim climate change is a hoax:

• What evidence do you have that it is a hoax?
• What climate mechanisms have you identified that will counteract the following feedback cycles driving climate change?

The Permafrost Feedback

Higher temperatures		More melting of permafrost
More greenhouse heating		More methane and CO2 in the air

Diagram: This feedback cycle amplifies (1) temperature, (2) permafrost melting, and (3) global warming.

The circular chain of cause and effect in this amplifying feedback cycle is:

• Higher air temperatures tend to cause
• More melting of permafrost, with the exposure and decay of frozen plant and animal matter, which tends to
• Increase atmospheric carbon dioxide & methane, which tends to
• Increase greenhouse heating, which tends to
• Increase air temperatures, and then the cycle repeats.

For more, see the permafrost feedback cycle on this website.

The Arctic Ice-Albedo Warming Feedback

Higher air temperatures		Less ice cover
More absorption of the sun’s heat		Less sunlight reflected

Diagram: This feedback cycle amplifies (1) sea ice retreat in the Arctic and (2) higher temperatures

See the dwindling Arctic sea ice page on this website.

These causal linkages are tendencies.

The cause-and-effect linkages in these feedbacks are tendencies or likely outcomes. External events often disrupt the links in these feedback cycles, preventing the feedback from becoming dominant. For example, with “less ice cover”, the Arctic would normally “absorb more heat from the sun”; however, after a volcanic eruption, volcanic ash could reduce the sunlight reaching the Arctic, and the Arctic would NOT “absorb more heat”.

See my System Theory page.

The Forest Fire Feedback

Higher temperatures		More heat & drought
More carbon dioxide in the air & more greenhouse heating		More Forest fires

Diagram: This feedback cycle escalates temperatures and forest fires

See my page on fires intensifying climate change.

The Water Vapour Feedback

Higher air temperatures		Increase (a) the air’s capacity to hold water vapour, & (b) evaporation
More greenhouse heating		More water vapour in the air

Diagram: This feedback cycle amplifies (1) temperatures and (2) atmospheric water vapour

In this amplifying feedback cycle:

• Increased global air temperatures tend to
• Increase (a) the air’s capacity to hold water vapour, and (b) evaporation from the oceans, which tends to
• Increase water vapour (a greenhouse gas) in the air, which tends to
• Increase greenhouse heating, which tends to
• Increase global air temperatures, and then the cycle repeats.

This feedback is fast-moving because changes in air temperature immediately affect the amount of water vapour the air can hold.

This cycle is also reversible, as global cooling would reduce atmospheric water vapour, but we are far from seeing any global cooling.

(Climate Change: Now or Never: New Scientist: 24 Apr 2021: page 37).

The Phytoplankton Feedback

Higher air temperatures		More ocean surface heating
More carbon dioxide in the air		Less nutrient upwelling
Less photosynthesis & Less carbon sinking to the ocean floor		Reduced phytoplankton population

Diagram: This feedback cycle increases temperatures and drops the phytoplankton population

See my page on Ocean surface heating and the phytoplankton feedback cycle.

The Ocean CO₂ Feedback

Higher temperatures		Higher ocean temperatures
More carbon dioxide in the air & more greenhouse heating		The ocean can absorb less carbon dioxide.

Diagram: This feedback cycle increases temperatures and decreases ocean absorption of CO2

See my “Temperature & Carbon Dioxide” page.

The Ice Darkening Feedback

Higher temperatures		More melting of the ice sheet surface
Less sunlight is reflected & more is absorbed.		More dark matter on the ice surface

Diagram: This feedback cycle escalates temperatures and the darkening of ice surfaces

In this amplifying feedback cycle:

• Higher temperatures tend to
• Melt more of the ice sheet, which tends to
• Expose more dark matter on the ice surface, like ash from distant bushfires that landed on the ice long ago and became buried within the ice, which tends to
• Reduce the reflection of sunlight from the ice back into outer space, and increase the sunlight absorbed, which tends to cause
• Higher global temperatures, and then the cycle repeats.

The Glacier Thinning Feedback

More glacial surface melting.		A drop in the altitude of the glacier surface
		A rise in the average temperature at the glacier surface

Diagram: This feedback cycle amplifies glacial surface melting

This feedback occurs because the average temperature at high altitudes is much lower than at sea level, and some ice sheets in Antarctica are over 4,000 metres in height.

See the Glaciers in Retreat page on this website.

The Populist Politics Feedback

Here is a climate-political feedback cycle that could take hold.

A powerful way to limit mass migration is to curb climate change and its disruptions.

See the right-wing populism feedback cycle on this website.

Other Warming Feedback Cycles

Lovelock (2006, p. 34) mentions three additional warming feedback cycles related to forests, and there will be even more.

No Evidence of Any Dynamic to Stop the Warming

James Lovelock (The Revenge of Gaia, 2006, page 35) writes that global warming is a grave concern. The current rate of warming suggests that there are no global climate dynamics that will effectively oppose this warming, limit temperature increases, and keep the environment safe for life as we know it.

Lovelock points out that the levels of methane and CO₂ in the atmosphere in 2006 were comparable to those from natural releases of these gases 55 million years ago. At this time, temperatures rose by 5 to 8 degrees Celsius, with consequences lasting 200,000 years.

There is no evidence of any climate dynamic that will stop the current global warming.

The Danger of Global Warming Amplification

Feedback cycles start slowly but then can produce rapid change. Unfortunately, the above global heating feedback cycles reinforce one another, each adding to the heating and threatening our nurturing climate. A critical danger is that:

• One of these heating feedback cycles becomes dominant.
• This dominance leads to a cascade of the other heating feedbacks becoming dominant.
• Humans cannot counter this heating as (1) stopping the use of fossil fuels only stops one source of carbon dioxide and does not decrease the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and (2) geoengineering to cool the planet does not match the heating of the heating feedback cycles.
• The heating destroys our nurturing environment.

We have co-evolved with our climate, so our current climate system suits human beings and the rich diversity of life on our planet. We must protect our climate system because global heating threatens our current climate, the global economy, political stability, human health, mass migration, and the environment.

The amplification of climate action

These vicious cycles driving global warming are frightening. So, I have included (1) a positive section here about Australia’s progress towards electrification, and (2) a virtuous cycle that could amplify effective action in Australia to inhibit global warming.

	More popularity for the superpower vision
More benefits		More progress toward the vision

Diagram: This feedback cycle amplifies progress towards the superpower vision.

In this cycle:

• An increase in the popularity of the “Australia as a renewable energy superpower” vision tends to
• Increase progress towards that vision, which tends to
• Increase the resulting benefits, which tends to
• Increase the popularity of the superpower vision, and then the cycle repeats.

Focusing on the feedback cycles that amplify global heating can be demoralising. It can be more energising to focus on positives, like this “amplification of climate action feedback”, which could propel Australia towards an attractive future. For more on this, see:

• The amplifying feedback cycle of vision, progress & benefit on this website, and
• Australia’s progress towards being a renewable energy superpower on this website.

Related pages

Feedback is a long-established concept central to “Systems Theory”. See my page on:

• Introduction to System Theory & Audio Feedback.

Scientific certainty increases as evidence from different sources converges on one result. We have an overwhelming convergence of evidence supporting climate change. See my page on:

• Convergence and Scientific Certainty
• Evidence for climate change

External Links re feedback

• Climate Change Feedbacks: 10-minute video: UK Meteorology Office
• Feedback loops point to a very hot 21st Century: Science Daily, 6 May 2006
• Greenland Reels: Climate Disrupting Feedbacks Have Begun: Truth-Out: 5/3/2015

Loaded 2014. Updated 10 August 2026.